Module B: eligible population, funnel and forecast

Exploration notebook, module B: existing outputs only, no new analysis

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About 128.8 million adults meet the label criteria (lower bound), including 17.8 million with Medicaid; about 30.4 million currently use a GLP-1 drug.

Funnel

pathway step label status est lo hi source unit
Obesity 1 U.S. adults 18+ measured 253.82 227.12 280.51 NHANES 2021-2023 (sum of exam weights; civilian non-institu… millions of adults
Obesity 2 Label-eligible (lower bound) measured 128.77 117.24 140.29 NHANES 2021-2023, BMI >= 30 or BMI 27-29.9 with a measurabl… millions of adults
Obesity 3 Eligible and told by a doctor they were overweight measured 85.47 78.87 92.06 NHANES 2017-March 2020 (question not asked in 2021-2023) millions of adults
Obesity 4 Currently using a GLP-1 drug, no diagnosed diabetes modeled 17.43 9.90 25.16 KFF poll Feb 24-Mar 2, 2026 (12% of adults, +/- 3 points) m… millions of adults
Type 2 diabetes 1 U.S. adults 18+ measured 253.82 227.12 280.51 NHANES 2021-2023 millions of adults
Type 2 diabetes 2 Diagnosed diabetes (type not separable) measured 28.75 25.85 31.65 NHANES 2021-2023 DIQ010 millions of adults
Type 2 diabetes 3 Taking insulin or diabetes pills measured 24.19 21.78 26.60 NHANES 2021-2023 DIQ050 / DIQ070 millions of adults
Type 2 diabetes 4 Currently using a GLP-1 drug, diagnosed diabetes modeled 12.91 10.16 15.86 KFF Nov 2025 poll: 45% of adults with diagnosed diabetes (r… millions of adults
All indications 5 Currently using any GLP-1 drug modeled 30.36 23.48 37.49 KFF poll Feb 24-Mar 2, 2026: 12% of adults (+/- 3 points) millions of adults

Two horizontal funnel charts. Obesity pathway: 253.8 million U.S. adults, at least 128.8 million label-eligible, 85.5 million of those told by a doctor they were overweight (2017-2020 file), and about 17.4 million adults without diagnosed diabetes currently using a GLP-1 drug (modeled, hatched). Type 2 diabetes pathway: 253.8 million adults, 28.8 million with diagnosed diabetes, 24.2 million taking diabetes medication, about 12.9 million with diabetes using a GLP-1 drug (modeled, hatched).

Eligible-population funnel

Survey estimates (excerpt)

NHANES 2021-2023 design-based estimates.

cycle measure stratum unit estimate ci_low ci_high n_unweighted weight
2021_2023 Adults 18+: count All millions 253.8200 227.1200 280.5100 6337 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 BMI 30 or more: count All millions 99.5970 89.5260 109.6700 2524 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 BMI 30 or more: prevalence All percent of adults with the measure available 39.7750 36.2280 43.3220 6235 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 BMI 27-29.9 with a measurable condition: count All millions 29.1710 26.2090 32.1320 822 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 BMI 27-29.9 with a measurable condition: prevalence All percent of adults with the measure available 11.6500 10.4580 12.8410 6235 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 Label-eligible (lower bound), without HbA1c: count All millions 128.7700 117.2400 140.2900 3346 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 Label-eligible (lower bound), without HbA1c: prevalence All percent of adults with the measure available 55.0410 50.8950 59.1870 5912 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 Label-eligible (lower bound), including HbA1c diabetes: cou… All millions 129.2400 117.0200 141.4600 3351 WTPH2YR (HbA1c)
2021_2023 Label-eligible (lower bound), including HbA1c diabetes: pre… All percent of adults with the measure available 55.2770 51.1440 59.4090 5917 WTPH2YR (HbA1c)
2021_2023 Diagnosed diabetes: count All millions 28.7520 25.8500 31.6540 870 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 Diagnosed diabetes: prevalence All percent of adults with the measure available 11.3280 10.0290 12.6270 6337 WTMEC2YR
2021_2023 Undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1c >= 6.5%, no diagnosis): count All millions 5.5151 4.2215 6.8086 152 WTPH2YR (HbA1c)

BMI class and diabetes by age and sex

Obesity peaks at ages 40 to 59 (47.5% in the highest group); diagnosed diabetes reaches 24.2% of men and 20.4% of women at 65 and older (NHANES 2021-2023, survey-weighted).

measure sex age_group estimate ci_low ci_high n
BMI Under 25 Men 18-39 33.32 29.26 37.38 809
BMI 25-29.9 (overweight) Men 18-39 33.35 29.57 37.14 809
BMI 30-34.9 (class 1) Men 18-39 18.55 14.46 22.64 809
BMI 35-39.9 (class 2) Men 18-39 8.82 6.00 11.64 809
BMI 40+ (class 3) Men 18-39 5.96 4.35 7.57 809
Diagnosed diabetes Men 18-39 3.28 1.88 4.68 817
Obesity (BMI 30 or more) Men 18-39 33.33 NA NA NA
BMI Under 25 Men 40-59 21.15 16.42 25.89 762
BMI 25-29.9 (overweight) Men 40-59 33.46 29.60 37.32 762
BMI 30-34.9 (class 1) Men 40-59 26.74 23.68 29.80 762
BMI 35-39.9 (class 2) Men 40-59 9.45 7.08 11.83 762
BMI 40+ (class 3) Men 40-59 9.20 6.68 11.72 762
Diagnosed diabetes Men 40-59 11.98 10.36 13.60 769
Obesity (BMI 30 or more) Men 40-59 45.39 NA NA NA
BMI Under 25 Men 60-64 24.13 18.85 29.41 346
BMI 25-29.9 (overweight) Men 60-64 37.54 31.48 43.59 346
BMI 30-34.9 (class 1) Men 60-64 26.37 21.17 31.57 346
BMI 35-39.9 (class 2) Men 60-64 7.07 4.97 9.18 346
BMI 40+ (class 3) Men 60-64 4.89 3.06 6.72 346
Diagnosed diabetes Men 60-64 22.34 17.44 27.24 351

Left: stacked bars of BMI class (under 25, overweight, and obesity classes 1 to 3) by age group, for men and women. Right: diagnosed diabetes prevalence by age group and sex with 95 percent intervals; at 65 and older it is 24.2 percent for men and 20.4 percent for women.

BMI class and diagnosed diabetes by age group and sex

Forecast

Median 33.8 million GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes by 2030.

target year p05 p25 p50 p75 p95
GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes (weight-management p… 2026 12.37 17.24 20.64 23.99 28.98
GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes (weight-management p… 2027 15.43 21.29 25.42 29.76 35.87
GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes (weight-management p… 2028 15.49 22.30 27.49 32.83 40.53
GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes (weight-management p… 2029 16.47 24.29 30.78 37.15 46.30
GLP-1 users without diagnosed diabetes (weight-management p… 2030 17.36 26.16 33.84 41.13 51.66
All current GLP-1 users 2026 25.91 30.36 33.55 36.72 41.43
All current GLP-1 users 2027 28.81 34.29 38.36 42.43 48.36
All current GLP-1 users 2028 28.91 35.29 40.36 45.61 53.08
All current GLP-1 users 2029 29.82 37.17 43.62 50.06 58.95
All current GLP-1 users 2030 30.62 38.95 46.70 54.06 64.29

Fan chart of adults currently using a GLP-1 drug without diagnosed diabetes, 2026 to 2030. The median rises from 17.5 million in early 2026 to 33.8 million at the end of 2030, with a 90 percent interval from 17.4 to 51.7 million. Three dashed scenario lines (downside 16.5, base 35.1, upside 65.6 million in 2030) and the shaded Medicare GLP-1 Bridge window from July 2026 to December 2027.

Forecast fan chart

Part of the project report; every number comes from analysis/outputs/key_numbers.csv. Public aggregate data; no company affiliation or endorsement.